Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints. They played a good game and deserve their first Superbowl victory. The city does too. It will be one long Mardi Gras in the French Quarter this year.
A Chinese American “Cold War”?
A Chinese state owned newspaper polled its readers last week as to the state of relations between Beijing and Washington. Over half of its respondents answered taht they believed the US and China were entering a “Cold War”. This is important as it tells us that mistrust towards the US is not just a governmental affair, but that it is widely shared by the Chinese urban public. Clearly, suspicion is a two way street. Of course, the issues they site are the same: Taiwan, Tibet, Trade (the “big 3″). Beyond this, Americans also criticize China for its human rights record in general, its locking up of resources globally as well as its censorship of the internet. For their part, the Chinese see this criticism as Americans tools to “keep China down”.
On those last two topics, some developments over the past few days:
1. China and Australia have signed a mammoth deal that gives China access to a gargantuan new cold field in Australia – further evidence that Australia is turning into a resource base for the industrializing Middle Kingdom the way it was once for the United Kingdom.
2. China says it has raided a major source of internet hacking. Recent criticism over Google must have stung. Of course, this does nothing with regards the official hacking into the security apparatus of the Pentagon and other Washington institutions. India just announced that Chinese hackers had compromised the computers of over 200 top Indian security officials including the three armed forces chiefs and the National Security Advisor.
An emerging Cold War indeed.
Debt & Deficits are only symptons. (Lack of) governance and complacency are the causes
Larry Summers asks how long the world’s largest debtor country and can remain the world’s most powerful country. His point is well taken. Great powers dont borrow themselves into their greatness. Given this basic reality, we have to assume that the US is heading for a fall. But the US has it in its ability to fix its fiscal issues. Get a control over the costs of the future: health expenses, medicare, social security. It could make the decisions on higher taxes versus lower spending that will bring some form of balance once the current crisis has abated. But there seems no will to try and do this. And thats the problem. Neither the Democrats nor the GOP are taking responsiblity for the overall situation.
Why?
Because Congressmen are playing to their core constituencies only and not thinking of the bigger picture.
And why is this?
Because their districts back home have been gerrymandered so that their party will win no matter what. Their real political concern are challenges that come from further to the left or the right of their own parties. Given this, there is no incentive or even attempt at reaching a compromise with the other side. This is a problem that now pervades everything in Washington. Lack of honest democracy leading to a lack of national governance.
Perhaps a bigger question is why doesnt the public as a whole address this? After all, this is not new. Could it be because the nation as a whole is still complacent that the US will remain number one by right, and that the country doesnt need to get its act together to meet the challenges of the future? That is a dangerous assumption. We are now dealing with a world where rising powers are hollowing out our very industrial base (let alone national wealth). At least during the Soviet days, we had a focus that united us into taking tough decisions. Perhaps the pain of a long recession, or a rising China, will knock us out of our complacency and make us force Washington to take the tough choices necessary to secure America’s long term future.
Budget deficits across the Western world
The Economist put this out today. I wonder what the comparable figures are for Brazil, Russia, India & China (not to mention the Gulf). This is not sustainable
Incidentally, note that Britain went from the biggest surplus to the biggest deficit in just 10 years. Shades of Iceland?
The US should not be looking to agree with China over Taiwan
Ever since the White House recognized Beijing as the “real” China, there was always a fear that Taiwan would be seen as something left over from history. Congress put paid to that obliging the US to come to Taiwan’s aid. That commitment is still there, and even though the US doesnt want Taiwan to do anything to provoke Beijing, that commitment remains. The Chinese have built a powerful military machine against Taiwan and it is unclear if the US will have the staying power (or risk the consequences) in an actual war. Even so, Taiwan is an ally, and backing down from giving it the arms it needs would send exactly the wrong signal to China. The Chinese understand power – and respect it. It was overwhelming US superiority that had led them to speak softly on the world stage for so many years. Since the economic crisis, a new much more resurgent China is emerging. Despite this rise, the Administration doesnt have the flexibility to back down in Taiwan even if it wanted to (a fact Beijing knows full well). But even if the US were to find a way to dilute support to Taiwan, it would not appease China, but encourage more challenges from it. The US needs to recognize its enduring strengths that persist no matter how fast China may (or may not) be rising or how loudly they shout. So, sell arms to Taiwan. Meet the Dalai Lama. Speak up over Tibet and Xinjiang. Back India on a border dispute that China is provoking. And tell Beijing that cyberattacks (whether on Google or the White House) are not acceptable.
US retreats from the moon as China forges ahead
The Administration’s budget today contains some interesting things when it comes to NASA. It has correctly committed the state space agency in helping commercial rockets reach low Earth orbit. In doing so, it is ensuring American predominance in many of the space industries of the future. But it is also cutting back on the big projects that inspire nations, capitavate the imaginations of its children who will be its future scientists and engineers. America, it seems, is pulling back from its plan to put another man on the moon by 2020. In doing so, it is ceding the moon to China, which has the burning ambition and excitement to get there come what may. This is not about vanity (for either nation). Its about scientific progress and the high ground in future technologies. America’s retreat is a matter of great concern
A dose of Chinese reality in Washington
Over the first year of his Administration, President Obama has done what he can to please a rising China. He has afforded it the greatest respect. He has refused to meet with the Dalai Lama. He has been silent as China has ratcheted up border tensions with India. He has even kept quiet over China’s blatant currency manipulation. But could reality be sinking in in Washington? China and America are indeed partners when it comes to economics. But on strategic terms, they are rivals. Recognizing this, the US has made the correct decision to provide defensive weapons to our ally, Taiwan, at a time when the Chinese military is pointing ever more missiles at it. We should not be cowed down by threats from Beijing of downgraded relations. Secretary Clinton has also had stern words with China on both sanctions against Iran and now on the cyberattacks on Google. It seems to me that the idealism of the first Obama year is giving way to the fact that this is a very fraught and uneasy relationship. China is not quite an enemy. But nor is it a friend. Managing China’s rise will be America’s toughest long term policy challenge in the coming century. The best way to do this is not to retreat into Fortress America and bemoan our shortcomings. Rather it is to play to our manifold strenghts. China still needs the US far more than the other way round. Furthermore, America, and its democracy has withstood the test of time. History will be the judge of whether China’s “communist” (state capitalist) system will do the same.
Is the Chinese model so bad?
Over the past 20 years, the world has made a definite move to capitalism. (I do not consider recent proposals to reign in the worst excesses of the market as a repudiation of capitalism – not at all). However, has the world made a decisive shift to democracy? We had thought that it had, but that was more our own hubris at the end of the Cold War when we thought history had “ended”. In reality, we mistook the adoption of capitalism with the adoption of democracy. Many authoritarian regimes have adopted capitalism (China, Gulf) but never embraced democracy More recently, other countries who had begun democratizing slid backwards (Russia, Venezuela). The staggering success of some of these countries in delivering prosperity to their people suggests that democracy may not be inevitable. How can you deny China’s stunning growth? Or Dubai’s gleeming skyscrapers? It may be that to continue this growth, democratic freedoms will be necessary (and i believe that it will), but for citizens of these countries, the authoritarian model doesnt seem so bad right now (so long as it delivers).
After the Dalai Lama, China has a new enemy – Google!
China’s recent spat with Google should not come as a surprise. This is not some kind of complex dispute about internet search technology. China has (correctly) identified that Google is a threat to the Communist Party monopoly on power, in much the same was as the Dalai Lama or the Uighurs are. Its approach to Google will therefore be similar to its approach to all challengers – to act tough and stare them down. It may be that China can continue to cow down its opponents. If it can continue to deliver economic growth, it may be able to sustain itself in this manner for years or even decades. In fact, there is widespread support for one-party rule so long as it can deliver prosperity. But if it cannot deliver, or if its restrictions on its population serves to itself hinder growth, then all bets are off
Meanwhile in Afghanistan
While the US is focused on Massachussetts and its impact on the President’s domestic agenda, the world moves on.
I note that Secy of Defense Gates is in Delhi and headed on to Islamabad. The US is getting sucked into the India-Pakistan rivalry as it tries to sort its way out of Afghanistan. This was bound to happen. Pakistan is obsessed (illogically) with India. They are more concerned with India than they are with their own affairs. So any perceived loss to India in any way whatsoever just hurts too much.
This is what has happened in Afghanistan.
The Pakistanis see the overthrow of the pre 9/11 government as a disaster . In losing them, they lost what they call their “strategic depth” against an Indian attack, a dubious notion at best. Now, they have to deal with a pro-US Karzai government that has strong links with India. These links are only growing as India provides increasing amounts of aid to Kabul. Each Indian shipment of food drives the Pakistanis apoplectic.
Pakistan would like the US to somehow stop India from playing a part in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. This is not going to happen – India has too much at stake in what is going on over there. At the same time, Pakistan is hardly a guarantor of US interests once American troops go home. After all, it was under their proxies, the Taliban, that 9/11 was plotted and hatched.
Pakistan will not aid US interests until it is sure that there will not be a pro-Delhi government in Kabul. In fact, they are actively aiding anti-US Taliban forces – something the US understands very well, which is why we are now fighting a silent war in Pakistan’s own territory. But in order for real peace, we need Pakistan to back down and start playing ball.
Ultimately (and this will annoy my Indian friends), this means that US will have to play some kind of role in smoothening out India-Pakistan relations. That is not to say that the US should try and broker a Middle-East style accord. Rather, it will need to get Pakistan to start focusing on its own reality (ie that it is a failing state) and stop obsessing about India. Unfortunately, this will be difficult, as its the Army that is in real power in Pakistan, and they have a vested interest in playing toy solidier.
But if we want to resolve the Afghanistan issue, what choice do we have than trying to knock some sanity into Pakistan?
