Message to Turkey: the EU isn’t the same as the “West”

I’ve been thinking long and hard about Secretary Gates’ comments about the EU pushing Turkey away from the West. The comments were made in light of recent events in Gaza and the Turkish vote against Iranian sanctions in the UN.

Secretary Gates is certainly correct about the impact the EU is having on Ankara. But he is wrong in thinking that he has the right to lecture the EU on something so fundamental as their very identity.

The EU is predominantly (exclusively) a Christian club – but it does not represent the entirety of what we call the “West”. Norway has absolutely no desire to join “Europe” (at least until the oil runs out). And further afield, the US and Canada exist quite comfortably as part of the West without having to have an association with the EU.

Moreover, while the EU is exclusively made of European Christian states, not all of Europe’s Christians are, or want to be part of, the EU. The Orthodox countries of Russia, Ukraine and the former Yugoslav republics are just as legitimate branch of Western civilization even if not part of the EU.

Geography and history conspire to make Turkey a “torn” country, to quote Sam Huntingdon. It will ultimately need to decide whether to turn East or continue to look West. I believe that Turkey can still be a full fledged part of the West as a modern Muslim democracy, even if its not part of the EU. After all, Japan is now considered part of the West, even though it is culturally very distinct.

There is therefore a quite viable future for Turkey as a leading Western country. It may or may not entail membership in the EU, but that should not be the defining issue.   It may be a state on its own, like Norway or Japan, or it may lead the former “stans” as its own part of Europe the way the Orthodox countries of Eastern Europe are.

It’s certainly in our interest to see that Turkey remains anchored to the West, and unless we reframe exactly what this means, it is something that is far from certain.

Published in: on June 12, 2010 at 11:47 am  Leave a Comment  
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BP or not, Britain isn’t happy. Nor are our other allies

Rightly or wrongly, Britain is coming under focus in America these days given the nationality of BP, the purported villain of the tragedy unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico. (In reality, the people who made and managed the equipment – Americans all – should be held equally accountable). US and UK officials have been forced to reconfirm the “unshakeable bond”, as someone recently called the vaunted special relationship. But these reaffirmations only highlight a growing disquiet in the UK about America’s attitude towards its ally. 

Britain isnt alone. Other allies are wondering about their relationship with America as well. Japan fears that the elevated emphasis the US has put on relations with China will come at its expense. India worries about this too, particularly in light of deeper US engagement with Pakistan. Poland worries about being sacrificed as the US resets its relations with Russia. Israel is concerned that in reaching out to the Islamic world, America is abandoning it.

The art of diplomacy is about talking to your enemies and advancing your interests. But if engaging your enemies means losing your friends, it becomes a self defeating proposition. The risk for America is that if our allies decide that they cannot rely on a strong United States, they will turn elsewhere. Britain and Poland could move closer to the foreign policy positions of Germany and France, weakening the Atlantic alliance. Japan talks about a more independent role, but in reality this means hedging its bets and cozying up to a rising China . Even India might be forced to be more accomodating to China, as the impetus for an alliance of Asia’s democracies fade.

These predictions may be unduly gloomy, and the Administration is belatedly trying to talk up its relationships with its allies. But there is still a point to be learnt. In reaching out to enemies or rivals, we gain nothing if we lose our friends.

Published in: on June 11, 2010 at 10:57 am  Leave a Comment  

The Turkish flotilla to Gaza has nothing to do with Gaza and everything to do with Turkey

The Turkish “humanitarian” flotilla intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza nothing to do with aiding the people of Gaza, no matter what the protestors on the streets of Istanbul say. If the Turks really wanted to help the Gazans, there were far better ways of getting aid to them than trying to fight it out with the Israeli Navy. Nor is this about some notion of human rights – Turkey should look at its Kurdish problem if it wants to confront human rights violations. As for Turkey’s demand for an apology from Israel – well, perhaps it should talk to the Armenians first.

This is nothing about Gaza and everything about Turkey itself . In particular, its about repositioning Turkey’s place in the world. Turkey has decided to return to its traditional status as a leader of Islam. Picking a fight with Israel is a cheap and easy way to score on the Arab street.

The sad reality is that Turkey has been pushed towards Islam after being rejected by a European Union, that has no intention of letting it in. Europe’s Christians have never regarded Turkey as one of them. In fact, the ”Turk” has traditionally been the very definition of the “other”.

The US may be factually correct to say that it is Europe’s cultural bias that is causing the West to lose Turkey.  But who is the US (or anyone else) to lecture the Europeans about their core cultural identity? How would we like it if Brussels told us that we needed to introduce bilingualism in Arizona, or how to deal with the millions of undocumented migrants who will undoubtedly affect America’s own cultural identity. These are decisions that only Americans themselves can make. The same is true for the Europeans.

What the EU does need to do, though, is to “man” up and admit its intentions about Turkish accession. Unfortunately, speaking honestly on the issue seems to be something that the politically-correct Europeans are too embarassed to do. The alternative game-playing, however, is only causing even greater problems, as this acting out in the Meditteranean demonstrates.

Cultural realities suggest that the West may lose Turkey as an aspiring member and ally. But it is bad politics that will lead to Turkish enmity.

Published in: on June 10, 2010 at 1:16 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Healthcare, you’re perfect. Now change!

I thought I’d let the dust settle before I attempted to write on healthcare.

So here is the good news. Washington proves it is still capable of doing big things, even in the face of implacable partisanship. (I wish the Republicans hadn’t made this about Waterloo. They could have added a lot to making this bill better – more on that soon). It also effected legislation that puts us on a par with all other advanced nations in providing comprehensive healthcare for our people. That can’t be bad.

But the bill fails on one of President Obama’s biggest promises. It does nothing to lower the rising proportion of our GDP that we spend on health. I doubt it even bends the cost curve given that it relies on cuts in Medicare that Congress will never really enact, so forget those CBO numbers. In fact, it does nothing to prevent the impending bankruptcy of this country. The only “saving grace”  for supporters of the bill is that we were going to go bankrupt anyway – with or without this bill.

So, while I support the passage of Healthcare, I do so with strong reservations. This Act must be seen as the beginning of the overhaul of the healthcare system in this country, and not the culmination of it. It creates a more humane society, and curbs the worst of pernicious insurance company practices, but it does nothing to prevent the collapse of the system.

The Democrats have now firmly put healthcare reform on the road. That’s a good thing. Now wanted: some Republican engagement (real engagement, not meaningless talk of “repeal”) to take this flawed legislation to the next level.

Published in: on April 4, 2010 at 3:13 pm  Comments (1)  
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Passing healthcare is about a lot more than just healthcare

After a long year of debate, the House will vote this week on the passage of healthcare. If it does pass in the House (even before reconciliation in the Senate), the United States will finally have a near-comprehensive health care system.

As big as the healthcare debate is, there is a bigger story here. Is Washington now so broken that it is essentially not able to pass any meaningful legislation at all any more. With large majorities in the House and the Senate, and with control of the Presidency, if the Democrats cannot pass legislation they explicitly ran on, there is something seriously wrong with Washington and our system of government.

Filibusters are parliamentary procedures which were not meant to be used frequently. They are now used continuously bringing the governing of the country to a halt. Democrats, therefore, have the absolute right to use equally parliamentary procedures of reconciliation or the “deemed passed” package that the House will probably employ. The country has voted for the Democratic Party, and they should have the right to at least have a vote on their agenda, no matter how objectionable it is to the other side.

I do not believe that this healthcare legislation is an optimal solution. It expands medical coverage, which I applaud. But it will be costly, and not bend the cost curve let alone reduce the spending on healthcare. Given the impact this will have on the nation’s long term debt, we may yet regret the package of this bill. This is a legitimate question, and one that I personally wrestle with. But more important than even the fiscal deficit or unsustainable debt, we need to ensure we have a system of government that is able to govern at all.

Published in: on March 16, 2010 at 7:18 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Brazil & Israel assert their independence from the US. Both are acting against their own interests

I am not trying to push a jingoistc US line with my views here, but i think i am being quite dispasionate on this. Two very different countries in two very different parts of the world have decided that this is the time to show their autonomy from the US – which in of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. But in doing so, they are actually hurting the cause of international peace and ultimately their own credibility as responsible players in the world system.

Brazil is exercising its independence in foreign policy by not joining the international coalition against Iran. This, despite the fact that even Russia is sounding more positive on joining the US/EU line on Iran’s nuclear policy. What is actually at play here has nothing to do with Iran. Brazil aspires to play a global role. It even has a claim to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Fair enough. I actually think Brazil deserves it. But with increased power and influence comes increased responsibility. A foreign policy based primarily on defying the United States and not on the actual issue at hand is not the sign of a global power. Brazil lessens its own credibility when it chooses not to join global solutions to the critical issues of the day.

Israel is the other country on my list. I am normally quite pro-Israel. I profoundly believe in Israel’s right to exist in peace within secure borders. It is for that reason that I, along with Israel’s other friends (eg the United States government) favor a two state solution. The alternative is one state in which Jews ultimately find themselves in the minority. Announcing more settlements then is a mistake as it makes achieving a two state solution that much harder. Furthermore, by announcing it at the very moment when Vice President Biden was in the country, Netanyahu is clearly telling President Obama that it is not going to play ball on the peace process. This is very unfortunate for Israel. Not only is it deferring a fading opportunity for peace. It is also thumbing its nose to its closest ally, and that is something that is especially unwise for a country with as few friends as Israel.

Brazil and Israel are in two parts of the world, but both are demonstrating the same determination to set a foreign policy that is independent of Washington. This is their right. But to act against your own interests (or those of the world community) just to defy the US, is hardly the sign of confident or rising nations.

Published in: on March 15, 2010 at 7:29 pm  Leave a Comment  
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So goes the Senate, so goes the country?

Now Democrats are getting challenges from their left flank the way that Republicans are getting from the far right. Soon the moderates of both parties will be gone. Congress is beginning to look like European parliaments, with their ideological conservative and socialist parties.  Some say that this is not a bad thing as it simply reflects the country. I don’t buy that. Sure, there are differences between ths suburbs of Indiana and downtown San Francisco - but there is a vital center of Americans, who tend to be moderate in most matters. In fact, the proportion of Americans who describe themselves as “independents” is growing rapidly, even as the percentage of Americans who are registered as either Democrat or Republican is going down.  The Senate, however, does not reflect this growing trend. Rather it reflects Cable TV. And so, nobody can agree on anything.

Houston, we have a problem.

It used to be that when Congressmen and Senators got to Washington, they would work with the other side and get things done. Now, with all the grandstanding on 24 hr news channels, they’re politicing, not governing. So, perhaps we should call their bluff on this grandstanding. If Republicans want to filibuster, let them. Let them stay up all night if thats what they want to do. (My gut is that they neither have the energy to do it, nor the guts to do it on TV). If progressives on the left want to push the Democratic Party out of the national mainstream at a time when the President is already having problems with his message, let them. They can put up primary fights across the country and lets see how the electorate reacts.

But for God’s sake, do something. Maybe we need total war before sheer exhaustion, or sheer shame, will get Washington governing again.

Published in: on March 2, 2010 at 8:53 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Something happened on the way to Kabul

Something’s in the air in AfPak. A major offensive in Hemland, which in of itself is not surprising. US drone attacks killing one of the dreaded Haqqani brothers in North Waziristan. Again, great news but hardly a surprise that we should be trying to do this. The interesting news is Pakistan’s arrest of Mullah Baradar. Pakistan is the critical cog in this wheel so whatever they do has a purpose and a meaning. In fact, Pakistan is the key to unlocking the war in Afghanistan. It is also the major world jihadi threat (not Afghanistan) and so must be dealt with in its own right also.

It appears that Baradar might have been willing to talk with the Americans. It makes sense then that the ISI would want to pick him up as they dont want to be excluded from any negotiations. The fact that they found him in urban Karachi (like they did with Khalid Sheikh Muhammed) and not in the wild badlands of the frontier suggest that they knew where he was from the get go and could have picked him up years earlier.

It used to be that Pakistan would conveniently “find” Al Qaeda leaders “on demand”. Now they are doing the same with the Afghan Taliban – people they used to (and for the most part still do) regard as strategic assets. There must be a powerful reason that they are cashing in these chips. And no reason can be bigger for Pakistan than India.

With over $1 billion in civilian assisitance already invested in Afghanistan and a high popularity rating among the Afghan public, the Pakistanis will do anything to stop further Indian “encirclement”. They even prevented fortified Indian biscuits from reaching Afghan children lest it boost India’s popularity.

Hopefully, Washington is playing this right. The smart thing to do is not to tell India to stand down. But to tell it to stand up in Afghanistan. Force the Pakistanis to play ball or face the alternatives. They will not listen to pleas about human rights or peace. They didnt care while the Taliban were turning Afghanistan into a medieval prison and playing host to 9/11. They dont care now – at least their army doesnt. But they do care that they have a seat at the table at the end of the day. And they especially care that India does not.

The only way to make them play ball is to deepen Indian engagement in Afghanistan – particularly with regards training and integrating the warlords into the new Afghan Army. Keeping India in is the way to make Pakistan play ball. Take India out, and the double dealing starts again. It is India that keeps Pakistan honest. Not American pleas. This is not rocket science, but then Washington has never really known how to deal with Islamabad.

In the great chessboard that is Afghanistan, news moves are being played. Hope we learn from our mistakes. Don’t undercut democratic allies or believe military dictatorships. Do the right thing, and the right result will happen. America needs to play smart – and tough.

Published in: on February 21, 2010 at 10:46 am  Comments (4)  
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Obama partially does the right thing on Tibet

President Obama finally meets the Dalai Lama – undoubtedly one of the most revered men of our times. That he waited to do this until after he had gone to Beijing was bad on the moral front and meaningless on the policy front. China does not reward weakness. But the President was careful to meet the Tibetan leader in the “Map Room” and not the Oval Office, which is where political figures are normally met. Did someone in the Administration actually think that this gesture would make things better with Beijing? Get real. They responded with their own gesture of selling US treasuries as “punishment”. (Don’t worry, they really can’t abandon the US debt market en masse no matter what they say publicly). Our fear of offending Beijing actually just makes our relationship with them worse as it encourages them to demand more from us.

The Chinese will never be satisified when it comes to our relationship with the Dalai Lama, so why not just do the right thing and give the man the respect that he deserves?

Published in: on February 20, 2010 at 12:51 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Some ideas for winning in Afghanistan

1. Do not, do not, do not publicly announce a date certain for leaving

2 Revive our links to the warlords (or create new ones). They are not democratic, but the alternative Taliban are far worse. The Warlords know how to fight the way the Taliban does. And they are inexpensive! All the non-Pashtun tribes would be only too happy to join this fight. Even disaffected Pashtuns will be to, if they know we mean business.

3. Either send Afghan troops/police to India for training or send Indian trainers to Afghanistan. Make it clear to the Govt of Afghanistan that the world will bear the cost of an enlarged Afghan Army – the alternative is far far more expensive. Engage other countries (India, Turkey, Arab allies) to assist us in civil reconstruction projects

4. Start an informal dialog with Iran, Russia and India on Afghanistan (there’s no other choice). In fact, if you put them together and add some of the war lords, you have the old Northern Alliance that Musharaff fooled us into disbanding

5. Talk tough with Pakistan. No more blackmail. The only reason we are still fighting in Afghanistan is because Pakistan is giving sanctuary to the Taliban. Pakistan needs to start playing ball. They will do this if they honestly believe that we are not going anywhere.Ultimately, the real fight which imperils our future is more in Pakistan in Afghanistan.  We can’t afford to let more of Pakistan become ungoverned and breeding grounds for new groups. Nor can we let their nuclear weapons get loose. Pakistan’s Army will get real with us when we start to get real with them ie we are not leaving

Popular political wisdom has it that Americans dont have patience with staying in Afghanistan. After all, this has been one long war. But we have never really been serious about fighting, given all our attention was in Iraq. The President needs to talk straight up to the public, explain why we really have to be in AfPak, it absolutely affects US security, and that victory will not be easy. If we are not going to fight this properly, we might as well not fight at all. The minute the American people buy into a long engagement, the Taliban and Pakistan will start taking us seriously - and that will be the turning point of the war.

Churchill never promised it was going to be easy. History has judged him well.

Published in: on February 14, 2010 at 10:49 pm  Comments (3)  
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