During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden predicted that the new president would be tested within six months of coming to office. Events have proven his words to be prophetic. With crises brewing in North Korea, the Caucuses, Iran, AfPak, and now piracy in Somalia, there are plenty of hotspots for the State Department and the Pentagon to get overwhelmed with.
We believe strongly, that America, as the world’s preeminent power, should play a global role and show leadership in all of these areas. However, the only way that it hold on to its preeminence is to marshall its resources effectively and not over-spread its resources too widely, focusing on those areas of most importance to America itself.
Right now, nothing can be more critical than getting peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan. A failed Afghanistan or Pakistan will further become breeding grounds for terrorist strikes against the West. Nothing can be more important than preventing this from happening. This is more important than the balance of power of Sunni vs Shia in Iraq, the antics of Kim Jong Il, or the actions of a couple of pirates off the coast of Somalia. It is even more important than the Administration’s outreach to the Iranians.
We do not mean to belittle the other problems facing the Administration. Each is of importance and will require sustained engagement by the Administration. But with limited resources, the US needs to prioritize. Here are the most prominent other issues at hand:
1. Iraq – America’s main goal here is to drawdown its forces in a responsible manner. There will be an upsurge in violence as groups jockey for position in a post-American Iraq, but that cannot prevent the US from focusing on areas of more importance. Eventually, the Iraqis will have to stand up for themselves. Continued US presence in out of the way bases, or in Kuwait, will allow US forces to strike to protect American interests if they are threatened
2. Iran – Iran’s nuclearization is a problem for the United States. It is also a done deal. America’s job is now to negotiate a roll back. It cannot prevent something that has already happened. Engagement is the best policy here. Military action is unthinkable at a time when US forces are so thinly stretched. Additionally, it is highly questionable if a military strike would even be successful given how dispersed Iran’s nuclear facilities are likely to be. Engagement may also benefit the US by strategic cooperation in Afghanistan
3. North Korea – As with Iran, a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable, but prevention is not the issue at hand. Roll back is. Continuation of UN sanctions is imperative. As is continued pressure on the Chinese. They have enabled North Korea for decades, and therefore need to be made to take the heat, and bear responsibility for leading the effort.
4. Somalia – The piracy problem off the coast of this troubled country is a byproduct of its failure as a state. This is a problem for the United States, but one that must be managed. It does not merit active US involvement. As to the bigger problem of control of the waters of the Indian Ocean, there needs to be the creation of an alliance structure on the lines of NATO in the North Atlantic. This is a long term issue.
5. Israel/Palestine – No American president relishes trying to achieve peace in the minefield of Israel and the West Bank. No US president can avoid trying either for a variety of domestic and international reasons. The US needs to push the new Israeli government into negotiations for a two state solution. It is in the best interest of Israel as well as the United States. It will remove the demographic time bomb that is Israel’s real long term danger and significantly reduce the temperature in the Muslim World. But progress on this is not measured in months. It will take time for the two sides to even agree to talk given Hamas’ official position. Furthermore, if Israel pursues a separate peace with Syria, its bandwidth to talk to the Palestinians will be limited.
All of the above issues are important, but are they critical threats to the United States itself demanding equal attention by the Administration? We argue that none are immediate threats, not even North Korea, which perhaps is the only one that is even remotely capable of impacting US territory in Guam or Hawaii.
Contrast this with the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The players in AfPak are most definitely looking to strike, and whenever they possibly can. We know that terrorists under a reconstituted Al Qaeda-Pakistan hybrid are actively plotting attacks in the US and its allies (note the recent terror plot this Easter in Britain). The United States cannot allow them safe territory for reorganizing, whether in Afghanistan, in the Pakistani borderlands, or in Pakistan’s more settled area (as is now happening in Swat).
Nothing is more important for the US or the world at large.
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