In assessing President Obama’s 100 day performance on the world stage, we measure his progress in addressing America’s three critical geosecurity priorities: reducing the threat of jihadi terrorism, while also reducing further alienation of the world’s Muslim population; finding a workable relationship with China, which is increasingly both an economic partner and a strategic rival globally; and preventing a potential long term decline in the US economy caused by years of profligate economic policies and the “time bomb” of Medicare/Social Security expenditures which are nearly upon us.
So, how has President Obama done?
In terms of jihadi terrorism, the President has finally reversed George Bush’s terrible mistake in believing Iraq was the critical front in the War on Terror. He has correctly understood that it is Afghanistan and Pakistan (“AfPak”), as a single theater, that pose the greatest security risk. The President has now taken ownership of the Afghan war and is ramping up operations there – something we regard as a necessity to drain the swamp of Islamist extremism. On this, we give the President high marks, especially when taken in conjunction with his plans to overhaul the military to better take on counter insurgency operations. Pakistan, however, has deteriorated far faster than expected and puts the President’s plan to force it to stop the attacks in Afghanistan in jeopardy. Pakistan has in fact itself emerged as the bigger threat to US security as its own Taliban strengthen, posing an existential to this nuclear armed nation. Any terror attack on the West is likely to have been planned in Pakistan. We do not see a coherent plan from the Administration as to how to deal with Pakistan. So far, the President seems to be falling into the same trap as President Bush by sending over every increasing amounts of aid while not preventing the flow of arms and support to the Taliban. Unconditional aid produces limited results. President Obama had talked about “Islamabad not getting a blank check”. Yet that seems exactly what he feels compelled to give. Without a serious Pakistan policy, we doubt the President can succeed in Afghanistan. The US and the West also are at a heightened risk of additional attacks. So while we are somewhat encouraged by the “Af” side on the AfPak war, we are concerned with the “Pak” side.
In terms of broader outreach to the Muslim world, we are not far from where we had expected to be given the President’s undeniable appeal. President Obama told the Turkish parliament in no uncertain terms that the US is not at war with Islam. His plan for a sensible drawdown of troops in Iraq will also help a lot on the proverbial “Arab Street” (if not the broader Muslim world). We hope that the President can stay the course in Iraq, and not get sidetracked by the inevitable violence that will flare up. America’s strategic priorities do not call for drawing borders or deciding constitutional niceties between Sunnis and Shia. The bold new initiatives in Iran are welcome though progress will have to wait until after the Iranian elections. Nevertheless, it is a new start with an important Islamic country and further demonstrates that America is not at war with the Islamic World. The Administration’s plan to place heavy sanctions on Iran if it goes nuclear misses the point that it essentially already has gone nuclear by acquiring the capability to enrich uranium. Rather a containment strategy is to be called for. It is unclear, however, how an American outreach to Iran will affect America’s relationship with its traditional Sunni Arab allies.
Despite these new initiatives, it is unclear to us how the President’s outreach has played with Muslims given the high degree of cynicism when it comes to the United States. We expect Arabs in particular will want to see progress on the Palestinian question before giving a thumbs up. Still, the President gains simply by not being George Bush. The sight of a black President with the middle name Hussein is still something most regard as remarkable. Although few Muslims will admit that Barack Obama’s story would scarcely be possible in their own countries, his election has confounded many detractors of America and American society. The President has also quietly begun to challenge the Muslim World to look at its own problems rather than just blaming America, but we doubt he will be heard, particularly on women and minority rights. At the very least, though, the President has begun to reduce the volume of US-Muslim rancor, and for this he deserves credit.
Dealing with China and dealing with America’s long term economic future have essentially meant the same thing over the past 100 days. China’s stimulus is important to the world economy and a welcome sign that it understands what is required of it as a leading economic power. The President seems to understand that tough discussions are going to be necessary if China is going to be forced to generate economic growth which does not involve huge trade surpluses with the US. But The President also needs China to finance his huge social programs, and so he has punted on any of the serious discussions, both on the trade deficit and on the related issue of currency manipulation. China’s talk of replacing the dollar is, for the moment, just that – talk. There’s not much they can do. However, they are asking a reasonable question about the stability of US finances. We have the same concerns.
While economics is binding America and China together, military rivalry is threatening to pull them apart over the longer term. China’s military buildup concerns us. The review of the fleet this past week, its deployment of ships to Somalia, its support to countries such as Sudan all worry us that a long term strategic game is afoot. Even though the President has wisely reached out to Japan, the fact that Hillary Clinton’s visit to Asia did not include New Delhi sends the wrong message to the other rising power in Asia, particularly given the great advancements in US-India relations made by both Presidents Clinton and Bush. The President is offering nothing new in North Korea. In fact it is being goaded into the same tired responses to Pyongyang’s tactics as were the Bush and Clinton presidencies. North Korea is already nuclear. Now is the time for containment and roll back, not hysteria at each new antic. Now is also the time to make China step up and take responsibility for North Korea, especially as it had a major role in creating this rogue state and commands the greatest degree of influence.
In terms of maintaining America’s broader strategic strength in the face of a rising China and still turbulent Islamic world, the President needs to reach out to Europe, as the Western World’s other major power center. This has not yet happened from a substantive point of view. The President’s trip in Europe smoothed a lot of ruffled feathers, but did not engage at all on the complex issue of the usefulness of NATO and the form of a future Western military alliance. America needs Europe to stand up on security – time will tell if and when the President will start a serious dialog on this. The President also left the G20 summit in London with little to show in terms of European economic cooperation. This is not encouraging. On other fronts, we are heartened to see that the Administration has placed a “reset” on relations with Moscow. Expanding NATO has earned us Russian enmity, while gaining us nothing. No one believes that we are seriously going to risk war to defend the Georgian Republic. Engaging Russia on Iran is a good idea, but it remains to be seen if the Russians will agree to the Administration’s offer to halt work on missile defense in Europe in exchange for help in Iran.
The President is right to raise the profile of Latin America – but its unclear what the follow through there will be. Latin America is an area that deserves far greater attention, particularly as it grows economically and is becoming increasingly linked to the Chinese, both economically and strategically. Latin America has traditionally been seen as America’s back yard and hence was assumed to always be in America’s orbit. This is no longer the case. Brazil’s rise as an economic power will give it room for strategic independence. This is something that Washington should both welcome and harness the potential economic prospects. The same can be said of Mexico, which deserves particular attention not because of its drug violence, but because its long border with the US makes it critical to the future of the US. If the Mexican flu virus demonstrates anything, it demonstrates this. The President was also right to begin the long process of normalization of ties with Cuba, a country which is currently not critical enough to be taking up so much newspaper space.
What worries us most from a geosecurity perspective, however, is not foreign policy but rather the President’s economic policies. We agree that the times call for an economic stimulus. We also agree that investment in roads, schools and even green jobs is required. But given the expansion in the money supply, the plans for healthcare, and the still high defense budget, we wonder where the money will come from. Actually, we don’t wonder – we know. Its called T-bills. However, issuing excessive debt is the fastest way to producing inflation which in turn will lead to higher interest rates, choking long term economic recovery. It will also lead to staggering national debt numbers. On the most critical issue of all, social security and medicare, the President has not yet signaled a serious willingness to tackle this. If he does not, he will be ignoring the biggest long term threat to American geosecurity. An America that lives beyond its means is the fastest way to ensure long term economic and hence geostrategic decline. We are therefore greatly troubled by the Administration’s inability to put forth a realistic plan of how to cut the deficit and arrest the ballooning of the debt.
All in all President Obama has had an extremely active 100 days. We suspect that globally the President is more popular as a person than the US is as a country right now. He is wisely using that to reintroduce America to the world, and even if nothing else has been achieved, the atmospherics are far improved. Closing Guantanamo, coming clean on torture (no matter how painful), and using his own personal popularity (and that of the Clintons) have all helped to restore some of America’s moral authority and popularity. On substantive matters, there is a huge amount yet to be done: a viable strategy in Pakistan that stabilizes it, removing it as a threat to both us and to US operations in Afghanistan; discussing new security structures with the Europeans; tough talk with the Chinese on the trade deficit (and other issues such as North Korea); and articulating a plan to address the country’s long term finances. But if measured in terms of “repackaging” America to a skeptical world audience, which was always going to be the first task for any new American leader, the President and Michelle Obama can look back to a successful first 100 days.
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