The Pakistani Army’s assault in Swat rages on. Both the military and the Taliban are engaged in serious fighting, seemingly oblivious to the over one million people fleeing the battlefield even as they shell each other.
The big question at hand is what does this military offensive mean.
We have long argued that Pakistan was ceding its sovereignty and putting its existence at risk. On the surface, events would suggest that Pakistan has now changed course. In doing so, the Pakistani government is effectively negating the peace treaty that its parliament unanimously passed only a few weeks ago. It seems as though someone in Islamabad has suddenly realized that the people they were negotiating with actually pose an existential threat. Indeed President Zardari has gone on to say that after Swat, the Pakistani military will go on to tackle the Taliban in Waziristan, headquarters of Al Qaeda.
This military action, however, has to be taken in context. The Pakistanis have a habit of attacking the Taliban or “capturing” Al Qaeda operatives whenever an American dignitary is due to visit or the US Congress is to vote on yet more aid. The actions taken are usually reversed quietly after the international focus is gone. Interestingly, the House of Representatives just voted this week on aid to Pakistan.
Despite this obvious coincidence, it does seem that this attack is different from previous actions that the Pakistani military has engaged in. It is sacrificing the lives of too many of its own people (soldiers that is) for this to be yet another act for American TV. So, does this change of heart by the Pakistani authorities mean that we are out of the woods? We suggest that this is not the case.
Pakistan has made absolutely no change in its basic tactic of using Islamist terrorists to further its strategic goals. It has simply changed its mind about which terrorists to support. It has decided (under extreme provocation and extreme global pressure) that it needs to destroy the groups that have come to be known as the Pakistani Taliban. They have grown too big for the Army to control and are too much of a liability for the government to get continued American aid.
However, this rejection of the Pakistani Taliban does not apply at all to the Afghan Taliban, which US troops face every day in battle. For Pakistan, they are the “good” Taliban. They are the ones that will take over the government in Kabul once the Americans leave. Furthermore, those terrorist groups committing atrocities in India are still actively being encouraged by the Generals.
Make no mistake – this military action is opposed by all the Pakistani terrorist groups. But for the Pakistani Army itself, it is not opposed to all terrorist groups.
It is good that Pakistan is at least getting rid of one group of radicals. However, it does not change our fundamental prognosis on the Pakistani state. Unless and until the state cuts ties to all terrorist groups and ends the disturbing spread of religious schools, Pakistan will not be able to end its decline. We doubt, however, that the authorities have the will to make the necessary changes. Large enough sections of Pakistani society are now too radicalized (including many officers in the military) for such a break to occur voluntarily. We continue to believe that if the state wont completely repudiate radical political Islam, it will continue to spread throughout its society eventually killing off the very host that sponsored it.
Pakistan has still not cut off its links to terrorism. Until it does, everything else is just shadow dancing.
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