The decisive electoral victory of India’s ruling Congress Party has provided a surprise but welcome boost to stability in a region descending into chaos. Given America’s vital interests in the region, particularly Afghanistan/Pakistan, Washington will breathe a sigh of relief. America stands to gain greatly from Indian cooperation in AfPak. At a deeper level, the weak nature of past coalition governments in New Delhi has prevented India from moving forward in engaging with the US in a strategic partnership. The Administration should therefore seize the opportunity provided by the emergence of a strong pro-American government to deepen ties with this emerging power.
The United States is currently fighting an open war against Islamists in nearby Afghanistan, and a proxy one in neighboring Pakistan. It is also gearing up for a long term strategic challenge from adjacent China. So profound are both of these threats to America’s near and long term security that the United States will ultimately be forced to deploy resources away from its still remaining (but increasingly irrelevant) Cold War European commitments to deal with the real challenges of the twenty first century which will emanate from the Asian continent.
This column has repeatedly stated that Islamic extremism and China constitute America’s two principal overseas threats (with Washington’s exploding deficits/debt forming a third domestic threat to national security). This is not to say that the column is hostile to either the Islamic World or to China. It is not. Rather, it is in both America’s interest and that of the world’s moderate Muslim majority to see the rollback of Islamic extremism. That cannot happen without honestly admitting what is going on in the Islamic world, no matter what the sensitivities are, and tackling them head on.
It is also understandable that America and the West be concerned by the sudden arrival of China – a new economic and military powerhouse whose non-democratic and opaque government make its future actions highly uncertain. China talks about its “peaceful rise” but its attitude to neighboring Japan, India, and Taiwan combined with its treatment of the Tibetans have not inspired confidence anywhere. Its military buildup across the Indian Ocean and its check book diplomacy in its global search for energy has justifiably alarmed Washington.
If the past eight years have taught anything, however, it has shown that America cannot and should not “go it alone” in dealing with major global issues. America needs friends and allies, particularly in Asia. And that’s where India fits in.
India and America have a lot of reasons to be engaged together in a strategic partnership. Both countries are plagued by Islamic terrorism, particularly from Pakistan. Both are also highly uncertain about the strategic impact of China’s rise. The United States stands to gain significantly from India’s economic rise through trade and investment as well. At a more ideological level, India’s democracy, liberal values and rule of law form the basis of a long term values based partnership and not one strictly of tactical convenience.
Until recently, Cold War suspicions have prevented India and the United States from realizing the potential of their relationship. These began to fade during the Clinton years. Relations were further enhanced during the Bush presidency when the two countries were able to reach an agreement on civilian nuclear technology, which had been the principal issue dividing the two countries.
A partnership between the two countries, however, is still not a done deal. There are many in the Obama Administration who view India through the blinker of its nuclear capability and deny it the respect that a nation of over a billion people should get. For its part, the endemic hostility of India’s communist party and sections of its foreign policy establishment to the US has prevented the evolution of a deeper relationship.
That is why this election is so important. In recent years, India’s polity has been fractured and no party has had the electoral numbers to rule on its own, giving way to the vagaries and instability of coalition politics. India’s last government, in particular, was so beholden to the Communists that it was nearly forced to scuttle the recent nuclear deal that it itself had negotiated with the US, even though it was heavily tilted in India’s favor. The decisive nature of this victory then allows the ruling Congress Party to govern in a much more decisive manner. Indeed a level of stability and rationality will return to India’s foreign (and economic) policies.
The Obama Administration would be well advised to use this change in the power structure in New Delhi to upgrade relations. It cannot appear to abandon India in order to please Pakistan. This is not a zero sum game. India and Pakistan are vastly different countries with differing social, political and economic prospects. Old US policies of the Zbig Brezinksi era of playing one off against the other are (like Brezinski himself) relics of a bygone age and dangerously out of touch.
The Congress Party’s decisive victory is good for America. The Administration should not waste this opportunity.
Twitter: dailyexception
