Ever since President Monroe proclaimed his “Doctrine”, conventional wisdom (in the United States at least) is that Latin America is fully part of the US “sphere of influence”. Indeed, despite local resentment, US economic and political interests have reigned supreme since Monroe. So secure was the region that despite all its problems, it played a relative sideshow during the Cold War (with the notable exception of Cuba and some central American countries). The eight years of the Bush Administration however saw major changes. The US ignored the region as it went off to fight its War on Terror, while at the same time China’s economic growth required it to enter the continent in search for the mineral resources it needed to fuel its rise. As a result, most Latin American countries today are increasingly integrating into the Chinese economy just as US economic influence is waning.
The US needs to start paying attention to what is happening in its back yard. True, China’s role in the region is still a lot smaller than America’s. There will also be a natural limit to the growth in Chinese trade as China isn’t particularly interested in the region’s manufactured goods but just its raw materials. In fact, a Chinese-led economic model for Latin America would lead to its de-industrialization just as it was taking off. Nevertheless, the trend lines are clear – for example, China just overtook the US as Brazil’s largest trading partner. What makes the emerging situation especially worrisome, however, is the combination of this economic shift with the rise of anti-Americanism in the region. Obviously, Venezuela under Chavez is making a big deal of its links to China, Russia and Iran. But longer term, Brazil may be of greater worry. Brazil has entered into many “Southern” partnerships as it charts its own course on the global stage. This does not have to be a problem eg its trade/political grouping with India and South Africa (“IBSA”). But these countries are democracies, and strong ties with them are not fundamentally at odds with strong ties with Washington. (In fact, the US has good reason to encourage more Indian engagement in Latin America to counter the Chinese, as it is doing in Africa). Brazil’s leadership of the nascent Latin American “union” UNASAL is more questionable. Ultimately, Brazil’s relations with China and other non-democractic countries such as Iran and increasingly Venezuela beg the question, as the Economist put it recently, ”Who’s side is Brazil on?”
Latin America won’t leave its basic US orientation any time soon. Not even Venezuela. Geography and the sheer size of the US economy will see to that. But the rise of China (and of Latin America’s own economies) point to a future where US hegemony in the region can no longer be assumed.
