I have been criticized by many of my friends for what they see as a knee-jerk reaction to my advocating more troops for Afghanistan. This is especially poignant criticism given the fact that I am a big believer that just throwing money at defense doesn’t necessarily make for a smart defense. After spending time in Delhi, I have also come to recognize just how tired the Afghan people are of US military missteps and of the corruption of their own government. It is also clear that our current strategy is failing. We are losing ground to highly trained fighters who understand the local terrain and culture in a way we never will. History in fact would also suggest that with our current strategy, we cannot win militarily unless we are willing to commit radically more troops and are willing to accept enormous civilian casualties. The Taliban’s success contrasts with our own lack of even being able to define what success for the US and its allies would actually mean.
The problem with the withdrawal plan being advocated by so many liberals (and some conservatives) is that it would be an absolute disaster for the region and therefore ultimately for us. It is not just a question of Afghanistan. The real ticking bomb is Pakistan. The President was right to term the theater of operations “AfPak” (though “PakAf” may be more accurate). If the US and its allies were to withdraw, an emboldened Taliban will not just seize power in Kabul but would seek to gain power in Islamabad. The Taliban, of course, cannot beat the Pakistan Army in an open battle. But then they can’t beat the US Army in open battle either. In place of open battle, the Taliban can wage a highly effective guerilla campaign and take wide swathes of territory, including those containing nuclear facilities (think multiple South Waziristans). Furthermore, the Pakistani Army is no longer a unified entity, with sizeable Islamist and Pashtun elements no longer loyal to the military’s command structure that would likely tacitly assist the insurgents. Further erosion of the Pakistani state is a risk that we cannot afford to take so long as Pakistan has a major nuclear arsenal. Given this, the idea of withdrawing from Afghanistan until we have ensured the survival of a friendly government in Kabul and the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is a risk we cannot afford.
