While the US is focused on Massachussetts and its impact on the President’s domestic agenda, the world moves on.
I note that Secy of Defense Gates is in Delhi and headed on to Islamabad. The US is getting sucked into the India-Pakistan rivalry as it tries to sort its way out of Afghanistan. This was bound to happen. Pakistan is obsessed (illogically) with India. They are more concerned with India than they are with their own affairs. So any perceived loss to India in any way whatsoever just hurts too much.
This is what has happened in Afghanistan.
The Pakistanis see the overthrow of the pre 9/11 government as a disaster . In losing them, they lost what they call their “strategic depth” against an Indian attack, a dubious notion at best. Now, they have to deal with a pro-US Karzai government that has strong links with India. These links are only growing as India provides increasing amounts of aid to Kabul. Each Indian shipment of food drives the Pakistanis apoplectic.
Pakistan would like the US to somehow stop India from playing a part in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. This is not going to happen – India has too much at stake in what is going on over there. At the same time, Pakistan is hardly a guarantor of US interests once American troops go home. After all, it was under their proxies, the Taliban, that 9/11 was plotted and hatched.
Pakistan will not aid US interests until it is sure that there will not be a pro-Delhi government in Kabul. In fact, they are actively aiding anti-US Taliban forces – something the US understands very well, which is why we are now fighting a silent war in Pakistan’s own territory. But in order for real peace, we need Pakistan to back down and start playing ball.
Ultimately (and this will annoy my Indian friends), this means that US will have to play some kind of role in smoothening out India-Pakistan relations. That is not to say that the US should try and broker a Middle-East style accord. Rather, it will need to get Pakistan to start focusing on its own reality (ie that it is a failing state) and stop obsessing about India. Unfortunately, this will be difficult, as its the Army that is in real power in Pakistan, and they have a vested interest in playing toy solidier.
But if we want to resolve the Afghanistan issue, what choice do we have than trying to knock some sanity into Pakistan?
