1. Do not, do not, do not publicly announce a date certain for leaving
2 Revive our links to the warlords (or create new ones). They are not democratic, but the alternative Taliban are far worse. The Warlords know how to fight the way the Taliban does. And they are inexpensive! All the non-Pashtun tribes would be only too happy to join this fight. Even disaffected Pashtuns will be to, if they know we mean business.
3. Either send Afghan troops/police to India for training or send Indian trainers to Afghanistan. Make it clear to the Govt of Afghanistan that the world will bear the cost of an enlarged Afghan Army – the alternative is far far more expensive. Engage other countries (India, Turkey, Arab allies) to assist us in civil reconstruction projects
4. Start an informal dialog with Iran, Russia and India on Afghanistan (there’s no other choice). In fact, if you put them together and add some of the war lords, you have the old Northern Alliance that Musharaff fooled us into disbanding
5. Talk tough with Pakistan. No more blackmail. The only reason we are still fighting in Afghanistan is because Pakistan is giving sanctuary to the Taliban. Pakistan needs to start playing ball. They will do this if they honestly believe that we are not going anywhere.Ultimately, the real fight which imperils our future is more in Pakistan in Afghanistan. We can’t afford to let more of Pakistan become ungoverned and breeding grounds for new groups. Nor can we let their nuclear weapons get loose. Pakistan’s Army will get real with us when we start to get real with them ie we are not leaving
Popular political wisdom has it that Americans dont have patience with staying in Afghanistan. After all, this has been one long war. But we have never really been serious about fighting, given all our attention was in Iraq. The President needs to talk straight up to the public, explain why we really have to be in AfPak, it absolutely affects US security, and that victory will not be easy. If we are not going to fight this properly, we might as well not fight at all. The minute the American people buy into a long engagement, the Taliban and Pakistan will start taking us seriously - and that will be the turning point of the war.
Churchill never promised it was going to be easy. History has judged him well.
Regarding your first point, is it not the fact that the Obama administration, from before taking office to this very day, has operated from timelines and broadcasting dates to withdraw? This seems to be at the core of their thinking- what is your view of that? As to point three, what is the practicality of India sending advisers to Afghan theater- would that not make for strange bedfellows, to say the least? To the extent that Afghan soldiers are an arm of the ISI, what is the nuts and bolts of that, and is it really in the cards?
1. I agree with you entirely on the Obama timeline being a bad idea. In reality it is vague what it means when it says we will “start” withdrawing, but nonetheless, it was not the right thing to do if you want to win the war. It was politically expedient back home in the US though
2. The Afghan soldiers are not an arm of the ISI. Not at all. The Taliban, however, are. That’s actually the point
2. Ah quite so and you were clear the first time, i was writing faster than thinking on this point. Where i was trying to get to though was concern over creating a proxy war between India and Pakistan, indeed perhaps something more than a proxy war if embedded advisers from both sides end up going at it. If the Paks are double dealing, officially supporting the US and Afghan army while ISI supports the Taliban- could make for some interesting results.
It would be interesting to see how Pakistan would react if significant numbers of Indian troops were planted to their West…If the did not have nukes then i would be all for it, and maybe it would make them think twice about causing trouble inside India proper. For the first time it is actually possible- Afghan government and army exists solely because of US support for now- we tell them their new friends are from India, that puts Pakistan in a new and different strategic position-