DAILY EXCEPTION » Afghanistan/Pakistan

Something happened on the way to Kabul

Manish Thakur — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 15:46:36 +0000

Something’s in the air in AfPak. A major offensive in Hemland, which in of itself is not surprising. US drone attacks killing one of the dreaded Haqqani brothers in North Waziristan. Again, great news but hardly a surprise that we should be trying to do this. The interesting news is Pakistan’s arrest of Mullah Baradar. Pakistan is the critical cog in this wheel so whatever they do has a purpose and a meaning. In fact, Pakistan is the key to unlocking the war in Afghanistan. It is also the major world jihadi threat (not Afghanistan) and so must be dealt with in its own right also.

It appears that Baradar might have been willing to talk with the Americans. It makes sense then that the ISI would want to pick him up as they dont want to be excluded from any negotiations. The fact that they found him in urban Karachi (like they did with Khalid Sheikh Muhammed) and not in the wild badlands of the frontier suggest that they knew where he was from the get go and could have picked him up years earlier.

It used to be that Pakistan would conveniently “find” Al Qaeda leaders “on demand”. Now they are doing the same with the Afghan Taliban – people they used to (and for the most part still do) regard as strategic assets. There must be a powerful reason that they are cashing in these chips. And no reason can be bigger for Pakistan than India.

With over $1 billion in civilian assisitance already invested in Afghanistan and a high popularity rating among the Afghan public, the Pakistanis will do anything to stop further Indian “encirclement”. They even prevented fortified Indian biscuits from reaching Afghan children lest it boost India’s popularity.

Hopefully, Washington is playing this right. The smart thing to do is not to tell India to stand down. But to tell it to stand up in Afghanistan. Force the Pakistanis to play ball or face the alternatives. They will not listen to pleas about human rights or peace. They didnt care while the Taliban were turning Afghanistan into a medieval prison and playing host to 9/11. They dont care now – at least their army doesnt. But they do care that they have a seat at the table at the end of the day. And they especially care that India does not.

The only way to make them play ball is to deepen Indian engagement in Afghanistan – particularly with regards training and integrating the warlords into the new Afghan Army. Keeping India in is the way to make Pakistan play ball. Take India out, and the double dealing starts again. It is India that keeps Pakistan honest. Not American pleas. This is not rocket science, but then Washington has never really known how to deal with Islamabad.

In the great chessboard that is Afghanistan, news moves are being played. Hope we learn from our mistakes. Don’t undercut democratic allies or believe military dictatorships. Do the right thing, and the right result will happen. America needs to play smart – and tough.

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Afghanistan, Helmand, India, ISI, Marjah, Mullah Baradar, Pakistan, Waziristan

Some ideas for winning in Afghanistan

Manish Thakur — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 03:49:13 +0000

1. Do not, do not, do not publicly announce a date certain for leaving

2 Revive our links to the warlords (or create new ones). They are not democratic, but the alternative Taliban are far worse. The Warlords know how to fight the way the Taliban does. And they are inexpensive! All the non-Pashtun tribes would be only too happy to join this fight. Even disaffected Pashtuns will be to, if they know we mean business.

3. Either send Afghan troops/police to India for training or send Indian trainers to Afghanistan. Make it clear to the Govt of Afghanistan that the world will bear the cost of an enlarged Afghan Army – the alternative is far far more expensive. Engage other countries (India, Turkey, Arab allies) to assist us in civil reconstruction projects

4. Start an informal dialog with Iran, Russia and India on Afghanistan (there’s no other choice). In fact, if you put them together and add some of the war lords, you have the old Northern Alliance that Musharaff fooled us into disbanding

5. Talk tough with Pakistan. No more blackmail. The only reason we are still fighting in Afghanistan is because Pakistan is giving sanctuary to the Taliban. Pakistan needs to start playing ball. They will do this if they honestly believe that we are not going anywhere.Ultimately, the real fight which imperils our future is more in Pakistan in Afghanistan. We can’t afford to let more of Pakistan become ungoverned and breeding grounds for new groups. Nor can we let their nuclear weapons get loose. Pakistan’s Army will get real with us when we start to get real with them ie we are not leaving

Popular political wisdom has it that Americans dont have patience with staying in Afghanistan. After all, this has been one long war. But we have never really been serious about fighting, given all our attention was in Iraq. The President needs to talk straight up to the public, explain why we really have to be in AfPak, it absolutely affects US security, and that victory will not be easy. If we are not going to fight this properly, we might as well not fight at all. The minute the American people buy into a long engagement, the Taliban and Pakistan will start taking us seriously - and that will be the turning point of the war.

Churchill never promised it was going to be easy. History has judged him well.

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Afghan warlords, Afghanistan, AfPak, India, Iran, Northern Alliance, Pakistan, Russia

India terror attack a sign that a failing Pakistan is trying to take India down with it

Manish Thakur — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:27:22 +0000

India has suffered yet another bomb attack in the past few hours, killing at least 8 and wounding 40 more. The attack happened in the industrial town of Pune, close to Mumbai. Pune is a center of India’s auto industry. It is also the home of the famous Osho Center and a Jewish Chabad place of worship. Pune is therefore a destination for international travel for so many reasons. No surprise then that Pakistani- American terror suspect, David Headley, visited this very location not just once but twice when he was scouting across India as part of the advance-prep for the Mumbai terror attacks.

That the attack should (again) happen in areas where foreigners congregate now indicates exactly what Pakistani terrorists want. They are trying to scare foreigners away from India to hold back its growth. It is not enough for them that most foreigners wouldn’t dare step foot in Pakistan, they are trying to create the same conditions in India. It is India’s worst nightmare – a failing (failed?) Pakistan trying to drag India down with it.

Let’s see how this plays out

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Asia/Pacific Tagged: Chabad House, failed state, Osho, Pakistan, Pune terror attack

Pakistan’s Generals who rant against the West at home have no problems personally owning homes in the West. Sanction them

Manish Thakur — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:22:22 +0000

The US Treasury has slapped sanctions on specific companies associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in order to put further pressure on its nuclear program. This move is particularly appropriate given the record of the Guard’s brutal crackdown on civilians peacefully demonstrating against rigged elections. But what is good in Iran can be used elsewhere. Our biggest near term foreign policy challenge is not Iran, but Pakistan – a nuclear armed failing state that aids terrorists who attacks US troops in Afghanistan, and backs terrorists against India, which could trigger the world’s first nuclear war. Most people in Pakistan’s civilian establishment cannot be blamed for Pakistan’s actions. Control (and hence responsibility) for the country’s dangerous foreign policy lies with its military, and specifically its ISI intelligence services. So why not sanction individuals and companies associated with the ISI? We know that the very Generals who rant against the West at home have no problems personally owning homes in the West. Cracking down on these individuals may be a far more effective measure with Paksitan’s military decision makers than bribing them with more F16s.

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Iran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard, ISI, Pakistan, sanctions

Pakistan’s bid to preserve its influence in Afghanistan. To what end?

Manish Thakur — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 03:08:12 +0000

The New York Times reports that Pakistan is proposing to the US to use its influence with the Taliban in return for some guarantee of influence in Kabul once US troops leave. (Are they leaving that soon?) This leads to the logical question of what exactly is Pakistan after in Afghanistan. This oft-repeated idea that Afghanistan gives Pakistan “strategic depth” in the event of an attack by India is nonsense. There would be no time in a war for any strategic depth to be had. Does Pakistan want to reestablish Afghanistan as a terror factory? If so, it is signing its own death warrant. So what exactly is it? The simple answer, and it’s always the same answer when it comes to Pakistan - a pavlovinan illogical reaction to India. Pakistan goes apoplectic at the sign of any Indian presence in Afghanistan for fear of being upstaged in a nonsensical existential competition (which in of itself is a joke given how different the two countries have become). Pakistan even went to the ludicrous extent of preventing the transit of Indian fortified biscuits for Afghan school children. Pakistan doesn’t much care whether India actually is building roads, hospitals or providing any kind of benefits to the Afghan people. It just can’t abide any Indian presence. So, lets say that the Pakistanis get what they want, and there is no Indian influence in Kabul (despite a millenia of relations). Then what? What exactly has Pakistan gained? Will its economy grow faster? Will its own tribal militants climb down? Will it rise into a modern secular republic? Pakistan’s perrenially short-sighted Generals need to ask themselves what happens if they get what they want. Then what?

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Afghanistan, India, Kabul, Pakistan, strategic depth, Taliban

The US should not be looking to agree with China over Taiwan

Manish Thakur — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 02:06:57 +0000

Ever since the White House recognized Beijing as the “real” China, there was always a fear that Taiwan would be seen as something left over from history. Congress put paid to that obliging the US to come to Taiwan’s aid. That commitment is still there, and even though the US doesnt want Taiwan to do anything to provoke Beijing, that commitment remains. The Chinese have built a powerful military machine against Taiwan and it is unclear if the US will have the staying power (or risk the consequences) in an actual war. Even so, Taiwan is an ally, and backing down from giving it the arms it needs would send exactly the wrong signal to China. The Chinese understand power – and respect it. It was overwhelming US superiority that had led them to speak softly on the world stage for so many years. Since the economic crisis, a new much more resurgent China is emerging. Despite this rise, the Administration doesnt have the flexibility to back down in Taiwan even if it wanted to (a fact Beijing knows full well). But even if the US were to find a way to dilute support to Taiwan, it would not appease China, but encourage more challenges from it. The US needs to recognize its enduring strengths that persist no matter how fast China may (or may not) be rising or how loudly they shout. So, sell arms to Taiwan. Meet the Dalai Lama. Speak up over Tibet and Xinjiang. Back India on a border dispute that China is provoking. And tell Beijing that cyberattacks (whether on Google or the White House) are not acceptable.

Filed under: Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: China, Dalai Lama, India border tensions, Middle Kingdom, Taiwan, Xinjiang

Meanwhile in Afghanistan

Manish Thakur — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 20:15:12 +0000

While the US is focused on Massachussetts and its impact on the President’s domestic agenda, the world moves on.

I note that Secy of Defense Gates is in Delhi and headed on to Islamabad. The US is getting sucked into the India-Pakistan rivalry as it tries to sort its way out of Afghanistan. This was bound to happen. Pakistan is obsessed (illogically) with India. They are more concerned with India than they are with their own affairs. So any perceived loss to India in any way whatsoever just hurts too much.

This is what has happened in Afghanistan.

The Pakistanis see the overthrow of the pre 9/11 government as a disaster . In losing them, they lost what they call their “strategic depth” against an Indian attack, a dubious notion at best. Now, they have to deal with a pro-US Karzai government that has strong links with India. These links are only growing as India provides increasing amounts of aid to Kabul. Each Indian shipment of food drives the Pakistanis apoplectic.

Pakistan would like the US to somehow stop India from playing a part in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. This is not going to happen – India has too much at stake in what is going on over there. At the same time, Pakistan is hardly a guarantor of US interests once American troops go home. After all, it was under their proxies, the Taliban, that 9/11 was plotted and hatched.

Pakistan will not aid US interests until it is sure that there will not be a pro-Delhi government in Kabul. In fact, they are actively aiding anti-US Taliban forces – something the US understands very well, which is why we are now fighting a silent war in Pakistan’s own territory. But in order for real peace, we need Pakistan to back down and start playing ball.

Ultimately (and this will annoy my Indian friends), this means that US will have to play some kind of role in smoothening out India-Pakistan relations. That is not to say that the US should try and broker a Middle-East style accord. Rather, it will need to get Pakistan to start focusing on its own reality (ie that it is a failing state) and stop obsessing about India. Unfortunately, this will be difficult, as its the Army that is in real power in Pakistan, and they have a vested interest in playing toy solidier.

But if we want to resolve the Afghanistan issue, what choice do we have than trying to knock some sanity into Pakistan?

Posted in Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Afghanistan, Gates, India, Pakistan

Going round and round on Afghanistan, and ending up at the same answer – send more troops

Manish Thakur — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:10:13 +0000

I have been criticized by many of my friends for what they see as a knee-jerk reaction to my advocating more troops for Afghanistan. This is especially poignant criticism given the fact that I am a big believer that just throwing money at defense doesn’t necessarily make for a smart defense. After spending time in Delhi, I have also come to recognize just how tired the Afghan people are of US military missteps and of the corruption of their own government. It is also clear that our current strategy is failing. We are losing ground to highly trained fighters who understand the local terrain and culture in a way we never will. History in fact would also suggest that with our current strategy, we cannot win militarily unless we are willing to commit radically more troops and are willing to accept enormous civilian casualties. The Taliban’s success contrasts with our own lack of even being able to define what success for the US and its allies would actually mean.

The problem with the withdrawal plan being advocated by so many liberals (and some conservatives) is that it would be an absolute disaster for the region and therefore ultimately for us. It is not just a question of Afghanistan. The real ticking bomb is Pakistan. The President was right to term the theater of operations “AfPak” (though “PakAf” may be more accurate). If the US and its allies were to withdraw, an emboldened Taliban will not just seize power in Kabul but would seek to gain power in Islamabad. The Taliban, of course, cannot beat the Pakistan Army in an open battle. But then they can’t beat the US Army in open battle either. In place of open battle, the Taliban can wage a highly effective guerilla campaign and take wide swathes of territory, including those containing nuclear facilities (think multiple South Waziristans). Furthermore, the Pakistani Army is no longer a unified entity, with sizeable Islamist and Pashtun elements no longer loyal to the military’s command structure that would likely tacitly assist the insurgents. Further erosion of the Pakistani state is a risk that we cannot afford to take so long as Pakistan has a major nuclear arsenal. Given this, the idea of withdrawing from Afghanistan until we have ensured the survival of a friendly government in Kabul and the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is a risk we cannot afford.

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Posted in Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Afghanistan War, General McChrystal, PakAf, Taliban, Troops for Afghanistan

The chickens come home to roost in Pakistan, but even now its military doesn’t really get it

Manish Thakur — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 21:43:24 +0000

It is difficult to have much sympathy for the government of Pakistan over the terrorist wave sweeping its country given that it is largely an outcome of forces created by the Pakistan military itself. Pakistan nurtured terrorist groups as an instrument of state policy in furthering its goals in India and Afghanistan. This is not in question, except perhaps by the most delusional of Pakistanis. Pakistan’s fight against the militants is nevertheless important to us. In this case, their battle is also our battle. We cannot afford a radicalized nuclear-armed Islamist state in Pakistan. We therefore need to support the government, especially its embattled leader Asif Zardari. Whatever his other faults, he is the closest thing to a secularist you will find in Pakistan. Real power, unfortunately, rests with the military, which is not willing to completely give up those Islamist groups that it still regards as “strategic assets”. It continues to distinguish between Taliban forces that can be used against India or US forces in Afghanistan, with Taliban groups that are overtly aligned against it. The Generals do not want to admit what is patently obvious to everyone else that there is an ideological bonding between all Islamist groups. The reality is that if the modern Pakistani state is to survive, it will need to dismantle the entire terrorist infrastructure it has created. Victory in South Waziristan is not sufficient. Militants will melt into the population and move to Southern Punjab, where they will continue their campaign of violence with the aid of other radical groups that the military would no doubt currently regard as “good Islamists”. For Pakistan, the choice is clear: clean up its act and survive, or continue with the path of the past 20 years and slowly disintegrate. The question is whether the rest of the world can really allow the Pakistanis to make the wrong choice yet again.

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Posted in Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Pakistani Army, South Waziristan, Taliban, Tehriq e Taliban Pakistan, Zardari

Don’t fight with one arm tied behind your back. Send more troops to Afghanistan!

Manish Thakur — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:25:43 +0000

For all those who believe that Afghanistan is turning into Obama’s Vietnam, may I suggest that the two situations are far from the same. For the first part, we are in Afghanistan because of an unprovoked attack on the United States. Second, leaving Afghanistan before we have secured it vastly increases the risk of a repetition of such an attack. I am not saying that we won’t get attacked if we stay there. But the likelihood of an attack is greatly increased if we leave before we have done the job. Simply put, we will cede safe space for Al Qaeda to organize against us. One of the reasons we haven’t seen another spectacular attack is because we have degraded their abilities in Afghanistan so effectively. To that extent, the Afghan mission has already been a success. We need to make this a self sustaining long term situation.

If we are going to use Vietnam analogies, we should think about our failure to build up South Vietnam’s own military forces to a sufficient extent before we left. We may be repeating the same mistake in Afghanistan. We need to build up a large – a very large – Afghan National Army. Holding territory is as important as the initial act of clearing it. Keeping coalition troops in Afghanistan forever is not acceptable, both for us or for the Afghan people, who support our presence for now. Fighting the Taliban and training the Afghan National Army is not, however, an easy job. We can’t achieve these aims without the required resources. We wouldn’t be in this situation if we hadn’t under-resourced the Afghan campaign in the first place (in addition to ignoring civilian governance). At this moment, that means we need to send more troops.
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Posted in Afghanistan/Pakistan Tagged: Al Qaeda, Taliban, Vietnam