Message to Turkey: the EU isn’t the same as the “West”

I’ve been thinking long and hard about Secretary Gates’ comments about the EU pushing Turkey away from the West. The comments were made in light of recent events in Gaza and the Turkish vote against Iranian sanctions in the UN.

Secretary Gates is certainly correct about the impact the EU is having on Ankara. But he is wrong in thinking that he has the right to lecture the EU on something so fundamental as their very identity.

The EU is predominantly (exclusively) a Christian club – but it does not represent the entirety of what we call the “West”. Norway has absolutely no desire to join “Europe” (at least until the oil runs out). And further afield, the US and Canada exist quite comfortably as part of the West without having to have an association with the EU.

Moreover, while the EU is exclusively made of European Christian states, not all of Europe’s Christians are, or want to be part of, the EU. The Orthodox countries of Russia, Ukraine and the former Yugoslav republics are just as legitimate branch of Western civilization even if not part of the EU.

Geography and history conspire to make Turkey a “torn” country, to quote Sam Huntingdon. It will ultimately need to decide whether to turn East or continue to look West. I believe that Turkey can still be a full fledged part of the West as a modern Muslim democracy, even if its not part of the EU. After all, Japan is now considered part of the West, even though it is culturally very distinct.

There is therefore a quite viable future for Turkey as a leading Western country. It may or may not entail membership in the EU, but that should not be the defining issue.   It may be a state on its own, like Norway or Japan, or it may lead the former “stans” as its own part of Europe the way the Orthodox countries of Eastern Europe are.

It’s certainly in our interest to see that Turkey remains anchored to the West, and unless we reframe exactly what this means, it is something that is far from certain.

Published in: on June 12, 2010 at 11:47 am  Leave a Comment  
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BP or not, Britain isn’t happy. Nor are our other allies

Rightly or wrongly, Britain is coming under focus in America these days given the nationality of BP, the purported villain of the tragedy unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico. (In reality, the people who made and managed the equipment – Americans all – should be held equally accountable). US and UK officials have been forced to reconfirm the “unshakeable bond”, as someone recently called the vaunted special relationship. But these reaffirmations only highlight a growing disquiet in the UK about America’s attitude towards its ally. 

Britain isnt alone. Other allies are wondering about their relationship with America as well. Japan fears that the elevated emphasis the US has put on relations with China will come at its expense. India worries about this too, particularly in light of deeper US engagement with Pakistan. Poland worries about being sacrificed as the US resets its relations with Russia. Israel is concerned that in reaching out to the Islamic world, America is abandoning it.

The art of diplomacy is about talking to your enemies and advancing your interests. But if engaging your enemies means losing your friends, it becomes a self defeating proposition. The risk for America is that if our allies decide that they cannot rely on a strong United States, they will turn elsewhere. Britain and Poland could move closer to the foreign policy positions of Germany and France, weakening the Atlantic alliance. Japan talks about a more independent role, but in reality this means hedging its bets and cozying up to a rising China . Even India might be forced to be more accomodating to China, as the impetus for an alliance of Asia’s democracies fade.

These predictions may be unduly gloomy, and the Administration is belatedly trying to talk up its relationships with its allies. But there is still a point to be learnt. In reaching out to enemies or rivals, we gain nothing if we lose our friends.

Published in: on June 11, 2010 at 10:57 am  Leave a Comment  

The Turkish flotilla to Gaza has nothing to do with Gaza and everything to do with Turkey

The Turkish “humanitarian” flotilla intercepted by the Israeli Navy on its way to Gaza nothing to do with aiding the people of Gaza, no matter what the protestors on the streets of Istanbul say. If the Turks really wanted to help the Gazans, there were far better ways of getting aid to them than trying to fight it out with the Israeli Navy. Nor is this about some notion of human rights – Turkey should look at its Kurdish problem if it wants to confront human rights violations. As for Turkey’s demand for an apology from Israel – well, perhaps it should talk to the Armenians first.

This is nothing about Gaza and everything about Turkey itself . In particular, its about repositioning Turkey’s place in the world. Turkey has decided to return to its traditional status as a leader of Islam. Picking a fight with Israel is a cheap and easy way to score on the Arab street.

The sad reality is that Turkey has been pushed towards Islam after being rejected by a European Union, that has no intention of letting it in. Europe’s Christians have never regarded Turkey as one of them. In fact, the ”Turk” has traditionally been the very definition of the “other”.

The US may be factually correct to say that it is Europe’s cultural bias that is causing the West to lose Turkey.  But who is the US (or anyone else) to lecture the Europeans about their core cultural identity? How would we like it if Brussels told us that we needed to introduce bilingualism in Arizona, or how to deal with the millions of undocumented migrants who will undoubtedly affect America’s own cultural identity. These are decisions that only Americans themselves can make. The same is true for the Europeans.

What the EU does need to do, though, is to “man” up and admit its intentions about Turkish accession. Unfortunately, speaking honestly on the issue seems to be something that the politically-correct Europeans are too embarassed to do. The alternative game-playing, however, is only causing even greater problems, as this acting out in the Meditteranean demonstrates.

Cultural realities suggest that the West may lose Turkey as an aspiring member and ally. But it is bad politics that will lead to Turkish enmity.

Published in: on June 10, 2010 at 1:16 pm  Leave a Comment  
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This “Greece-thing” is serious

If Greece goes down, it will be a major body blow to the Eurozone, the Euro and any hope that the European Union can punch above (or even at) its weight on the world stage. Simply put, having fiscal policy set in Athens with monetary policy set in Frankfurt was never going to be easy. (The same incidentally can be said for Spain and Portugal.) But something has to give. Greece needs a bail out and the only ones who can do it are the Germans. The Germans, for their part, dont want to foot the bill for the rest of Europe’s profligacy. On the other hand, if the Eurozone goes down, so does Germany’s aspirations to play a role in the new multi-polar world, so it may just have to grin and pony up. The price that the rest of Europe will have to pay is to finally come under the sway of Berlin (as opposed to Paris which previously ruled the roost). Is that a compromise either the Germans or Europeans can accept? The next few weeks will be interesting.

Published in: on February 11, 2010 at 6:37 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Budget deficits across the Western world

The Economist put this out today. I wonder what the comparable figures are for Brazil, Russia, India & China (not to mention the Gulf). This is not sustainable

Incidentally, note that Britain went from the biggest surplus to the biggest deficit in just 10 years. Shades of Iceland?

Published in: on February 2, 2010 at 12:59 pm  Leave a Comment  
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G20 Scorecard – the agenda and the villains

So its official, the G2 – I meant the G20 – has now replaced the G7 (or was it the G8?) as the central body to coordinate global economic policy. This makes sense as the countries of the G8 make up about 80% of the world’s GDP. Quickly, these countries (and organizations) include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, the US and the EU. (Why does the EU get a seat when its main member countries are already there? Because of the Euro? Either way, Europe cant have it both ways).

 The summit in Pittsubrgh is being hailed as a great success, with a surprising amount of agreement. From what I can see, the main topics discussed were as follows:

• Continuing the Economic Stimulus – everyone agreed to keeping the money taps going. No one really answered the question as to when we would return to some kind of normality. In the mean time, we continue to saddle the next generation with ever increasing amounts of debt. Chief villain: the United States which is already knee-high in debt but believes the economy will stall in the immediate term without never-ending spending (or Germany which is most cavalier about near term stability, depending on your point of view).

• Rebalancing the Global Economy – everyone agrees that a few countries cannot keep generating huge surpluses selling to the rest of the world (particularly the US) and then complaining that everyone else is a glutton. This is the biggest long term change the world needs to make. Everyone agrees, but no one is saying how it will be enforced except by “peer review”. This is remarkably lame. Chief Villains: Japan/China/Germany. Japan sounds like it means to take action and it probably does. China is making the right noises but probably has no intention of doing anything whatsoever. Germany isn’t even making the right noises

• Regulating the Banking System – this is not getting the attention it deserves. Most of the world’s banks have not recognized the huge liabilities on their books. We will not get to normality until this is done. They will not just “grow” their way out of the problem. Everyone to blame, though the US seems more realistic on this than the rest. Chief Villain: Europe

• Changing the voting power at the IMF – emerging countries rightfully deserve more say at the IMF. America is for it. Chief Villain Europe says it’s also for it, but actually is not. (Its claims that America should give up its effective veto are nonsensical. America is already underrepresented in voting power relative to its economic weight).

• Banker pay – everyone agrees that excessive risk taking has to be curbed. It cannot be rewarded. But Europe’s excessive zeal for this says more about continental Europe’s reflexive anti-financial attitude than it does about banker pay. Chief villains: France and Germany

• Climate Change – all countries are getting it that something needs to be done about climate change. Europe and now Japan seem most serious about cutting emissions. America is getting there, though the Senate may pose a problem in getting domestic legislation passed. The Chinese have begun to point to real emissions cuts – twenty years from now. India has made fighting this a case of national virility on the grounds that on a per capita basis it is still the West that are the polluters. True – but is this really a helpful approach? Chief villains: everyone

I do not doubt that the new global G20 conference is where the power has shifted. I also do not doubt that within that, it is the relationship between the G2 that will increasingly be what matters. As to how to enforce any of the agreements, which on the whole are good ones, I have no clue.

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Published in: on September 27, 2009 at 7:05 am  Leave a Comment  
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Polish reaction to Missile Defense moves reveals lack of faith in NATO

Earlier this week, I argued that changes in US missile plans in Eastern Europe were an appropriate military step – as they didn’t actually shield against any realistic Iranian missile threat. I also said that the message it sent Eastern Europe (Poland in particular) was a bad one as it made the US seem less committed to its security against a resurgent Russia. Give though, that the missile defense shield couldn’t possibly defend against Russian missiles, this was more symbolic than real. But why are the Poles so hung up on this symbolism? After all, aren’t they already a part of NATO – which obliges the US (and the rest of the Western world) to defend them in the case of a Russian attack? So why the hand wringing in Warsaw? Could it be that the Poles know perfectly well that by expanding so much, NATO’s defense pledge has started to become meaningless. After all, we are talking about Georgia joining NATO, and no one in their right mind seriously believes that the US would risk thermonuclear war with the Russians were they to march on Tblisi. Further, the Poles can see how NATO allies have totally abandoned US efforts in Afghanistan – the supposed “good war” that European governments supported. The Polish reaction to changes in US missile defense deployment reveals what everyone knows but no one will officially admit – that NATO as we knew it is history.

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Published in: on September 24, 2009 at 2:40 pm  Leave a Comment  
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The New York pre-party is over. Now for business in Pittsburgh

The UN General Assembly meeting is now over. Not too much to write about. The usual cast of rogues turned up, predictably outraging the local media. Libya’s Ghaddafi seems to have gotten the most attention this year. Obama made his now regular speech of announcing that America is back – chastened but not alone. And then there was a whole host of forgettable speeches from an endless array of other leaders.  Luckily, there was no embarrassing Obama-Ahmedinejad photo. Iran’s recent brutal election conduct combined with Ahmedinejad’s usual disgusting comments on the holocaust, makes this rogue just too distasteful – even for Obama’s unclenched fist. So enough of this year’s leaders’ self-appreciation party.

The important global meeting is actually not being hosted in glamorous New York but in decidedly unglamorous Pittsburgh. The world’s 20 leading nations will discuss the status of the world economy as well as structural changes required to prevent the recurrence of the shocks of this past year. I am not sure exactly how much of worth will be accomplished. Pressure for change in America is receding as spending programs lift the US out of its slump, lessening the resolve to restructure our suicidal trade balance. This will be welcome news for China, whose trade/savings surplus is in good part behind many of the imbalances. Europe will try and take its swipe at bank regulations and banker pay – really a stick in the eye of American-style capitalism. Given the EU represents the largest economic zone, it is surprising that persecuting the financial sector seems more important than addressing global imbalances. Europe continues to grow smaller in its stature. Still, banking regulations do need to be debated.

These new-styled G20 meetings are going to increase in importance over the coming years. This is not because it involves more countries, particularly high-growth ones, than the G8 of old. Rather, it is that the new G20 format brings together the US and China – the world’s G2 – in one forum. The future of US-Chinese economic relationship will define the world for the coming decades. Stay tuned.

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Published in: on September 24, 2009 at 12:16 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Missile defense in Eastern Europe was never more than symbolic. But symbolism is important too

President Obama’s decision to cut the ambitious missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic is not a surprise. Simply put, the technology is very expensive, it probably doesn’t work and it is aimed at defending against long range missiles that don’t (yet) exist. The real military threat from Iran is short range missiles. The President’s proposal to beef up Aegis-based systems is far more effective against this threat and additionally provides the flexibility to defend Israel also. So why the controversy?

The importance of the missiles was never military, but symbolic. By stationing missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, we were making a bold statement that we were underwriting Eastern Europe’s defense, at a time when its historic enemy, Russia, had begun turning expansionary again. Missile defense therefore was primarily about Russia, even though the system could never actually hope to defend against Russian missiles. For its part, Russia took great offense to the stationing of a missile defense system in its former satellites even though it knew full well that the system posed no threat to its security. Again, it is the symbolism that counts. The Russians did not want the perceived humiliation of seeing advanced US equipment stationed so close to their borders. Scrapping this deployment therefore is a big symbolic “victory” for the Kremlin even though it is a military non-event. In response to the President’s move, Russia has now stopped its own missile deployment on the Polish border. It is unclear if the Administration was able to extract any other concessions out of the Russians, particularly over Iran. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was not.

I am a firm believer that our interests ultimately align very closely with those of Russia – whether in respect to instability in the Islamic world or the rise of China. How we get Russia to join the Western World, on the other hand, is another matter, particularly as many Russians are suspicious of US intentions. History tells us that we won’t get Russian support if they sense our weakness. Rather it would only encourage aggression. So while President Obama has probably made the right military decision in axing a system that does not work (and provokes a potential future partner), he needs to accompany it with the right strategic moves. We must demonstrate that we are committed to Eastern Europe, even while we we acknowledge Russia’s status as a great power and our desire to seek strategic alignment with it.

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Published in: on September 19, 2009 at 2:21 pm  Comments (1)  
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Russia analysis in WSJ provokes anger – probably because its spot on

The Wall Street Journal today carried an excellent piece by Richard Pipes about Russia entitled Pride and Power (Link below). It talked about securing Russia’s place in the West as it undergoes its demographic decline, explaining its long term geographic dilemna. It also explains the incredible sensitivities of many Russians towards lecturing by the United States. The negative commentary that the piece received (in good part from Russia) suggests that it is a piece worth reading. I added my own short commentary, which i include below.

I’ve noted the torrents of comments on this article, which tells me it has obviously struck a cord. In fact, it is a remarkably perceptive piece. Russia is important. It is also in decline, but capable of great damage. Russia needs to decide whether to lose itself in Asia or join the West. I hope it joins the West. I don’t berate it for its democratic infringements as i believe that setting up a democracy is a process and not a onetime event. The Russians have never really had democracy and it will take time for its people to even want it! Russia needs to be treated with utmost respect as it is incredibly proud. I wrote a piece “Russia, what part of this don’t you get!” ( http://dailyexception.com/2009/03/28/russia-%e2%80%93-what-part-of-this-don%e2%80%99t-you-get/) that got me all sorts of angry responses from Russia. But my point is still made – it is in Russia’s interest that it join the West as much as it is in ours. In the mean time, we need to find a way to manage relations so that Georgia, missile defense and Iran don’t get out of hand.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203550604574358733790418994.html

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Published in: on August 23, 2009 at 8:40 pm  Leave a Comment  
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