On this Lunar New Year, China & India can agree on one thing – finish off the tiger

Despite all the nice words that (sometimes) come out of Beijing and Delhi, there is not much lost between the two countries. China believes that the presence of the Dalai Lama in India is a sign of Indian perfidy, and it further views India’s growing relationship with the US with suspicion. For its part, India has never gotten over its defeat by China in a short war in 1962, and is convinced that China seeks to encircle it with military bases and prevent its rise in general.

But there is one area where they can find common ground – callous indifference to the plight of one of nature’s most majestic creatures, the tiger. How ironic then, that this Year of the Tiger may also be its last.

Many Chinese covet tiger bones as an aphrodisiac and China has become an inexhaustable source of demand. Ever sensitive to being shamed by the world, the Chinese have officially banned the trade in tiger parts but in reality have turned a blind eye to this criminal trade. Acknowledging the effective extinction of the wild tiger in China, the Chinese run tiger “farms” where they breed them, grow them, kill them and then grind their bones to produce the natural Viagra they require to increase their virility.

India, for its part, is home to the largest wild tiger population in the world. At one time, the subcontinent was home to over one hundred thousands. Sadly, its tigers have been poached mercilessly by unscrupilous poachers who wish to supply the Chinese market. Shamefully, the Indian authorities have only reacted half heartedly. There are now barely a few thousand left and their extinction is imminent. Obviously neither the Chinese traders nor the Indian poachers have figured out that this lucrative elxir is about to come to an end forever as the wild tiger will soon be extinct.

As the source of the demand for tiger parts and for not doing anything about it, China shares its blame for the end of this majestic animal. For its utter indifference to its responsibility to protect this animal, India deserves even more shame – especially when the tiger is India’s national animal. It makes you wonder just how high some in Delhi regard their own country and heritage.

Welcome to the last Year of the Tiger

Published in: on February 14, 2010 at 5:14 pm  Leave a Comment  
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India terror attack a sign that a failing Pakistan is trying to take India down with it

India has suffered yet another bomb attack in the past few hours, killing at least 8 and wounding 40 more. The attack happened in the industrial town of Pune, close to Mumbai. Pune is a center of India’s auto industry. It is also the home of the famous Osho Center and a Jewish Chabad place of worship. Pune is therefore a destination for international travel for so many reasons. No surprise then that Pakistani- American terror suspect, David Headley, visited this very location not just once but twice when he was scouting across India as part of the advance-prep for the Mumbai terror attacks. 

That the attack should (again) happen in areas where foreigners congregate now indicates exactly what Pakistani terrorists want. They are trying to scare foreigners away from India to hold back its growth. It is not enough for them that most foreigners wouldn’t dare step foot in Pakistan, they are trying to create the same conditions in India. It is India’s worst nightmare – a failing (failed?) Pakistan trying to drag India down with it.

Let’s see how this plays out

Published in: on February 13, 2010 at 12:27 pm  Comments (2)  
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Here’s hoping Vancouver won’t be anything like Beijing

A lot of comparisons will be made about tonight’s opening games in Vancouver with the amazing spectacle that so dazzled the world at the opening of the Beijing Olympics. We should be dazzled. It was amazing. It was amazing that in a country of 1.2 billion people, they were able to keep the crowds so effortlessly in control. It was amazing the way they were able to keep most of China out of Beijing. It was amazing how they were able to close down half of Beijing’s factories to have a temporary improvement in air quality. It was amazing the military precision with which they paraded thousands of people in lockstep. Oh, and while i’m at it, it was amazing just how young those Chinese gymnasts looked.

The Beijing games represented the best and worst of modern China. Spectacular feats of engineering, organization, talent, progress and well deserved pride – all underwritten by a government that is terrified of loosening its grip on any aspect of society, lest it be overthrown. Those opening events were designed to announce China’s rise to the world, and to demonstrate the power and capability of its all-knowing government at home. This had little to do with the Olympic spirit.

So I, for one, will be thrilled to see a more normal celebration of sport tonight in Vancouver – and not some type of over-the-top exercise of national power. Remember Berlin?

Published in: on February 12, 2010 at 2:57 pm  Leave a Comment  
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This “Greece-thing” is serious

If Greece goes down, it will be a major body blow to the Eurozone, the Euro and any hope that the European Union can punch above (or even at) its weight on the world stage. Simply put, having fiscal policy set in Athens with monetary policy set in Frankfurt was never going to be easy. (The same incidentally can be said for Spain and Portugal.) But something has to give. Greece needs a bail out and the only ones who can do it are the Germans. The Germans, for their part, dont want to foot the bill for the rest of Europe’s profligacy. On the other hand, if the Eurozone goes down, so does Germany’s aspirations to play a role in the new multi-polar world, so it may just have to grin and pony up. The price that the rest of Europe will have to pay is to finally come under the sway of Berlin (as opposed to Paris which previously ruled the roost). Is that a compromise either the Germans or Europeans can accept? The next few weeks will be interesting.

Published in: on February 11, 2010 at 6:37 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Pakistan’s Generals who rant against the West at home have no problems personally owning homes in the West. Sanction them

The US Treasury has slapped sanctions on specific companies associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in order to put further pressure on its nuclear program. This move is particularly appropriate given the record of the Guard’s brutal crackdown on civilians peacefully demonstrating against rigged elections. But what is good in Iran can be used elsewhere. Our biggest near term foreign policy challenge is not Iran, but Pakistan – a nuclear armed failing state that aids terrorists who attacks US troops in Afghanistan, and backs terrorists against India, which could trigger the world’s first nuclear war. Most people in Pakistan’s civilian establishment cannot be blamed for Pakistan’s actions. Control (and hence responsibility) for the country’s dangerous foreign policy lies with its military, and specifically its ISI intelligence services. So why not sanction individuals and companies associated with the ISI? We know that the very Generals who rant against the West at home have no problems personally owning homes in the West. Cracking down on these individuals may be a far more effective measure with Paksitan’s military decision makers than bribing them with more F16s.

Published in: on February 10, 2010 at 9:22 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Pakistan’s bid to preserve its influence in Afghanistan. To what end?

The New York Times reports that Pakistan is proposing to the US to use its influence with the Taliban in return for some guarantee of influence in Kabul once US troops leave. (Are they leaving that soon?) This leads to the logical question of what exactly is Pakistan after in Afghanistan. This oft-repeated idea that Afghanistan gives Pakistan “strategic depth” in the event of an attack by India is nonsense. There would be no time in a war for any strategic depth to be had. Does Pakistan want to reestablish Afghanistan as a terror factory? If so, it is signing its own death warrant. So what exactly is it? The simple answer, and it’s always the same answer when it comes to Pakistan - a pavlovinan illogical reaction to India. Pakistan goes apoplectic at the sign of any Indian presence in Afghanistan for fear of being upstaged in a nonsensical existential competition (which in of itself is a joke given how different the two countries have become). Pakistan even went to the ludicrous extent of preventing the transit of Indian fortified biscuits for Afghan school children. Pakistan doesn’t much care whether India actually is building roads, hospitals or providing any kind of benefits to the Afghan people. It just can’t abide any Indian presence. So, lets say that the Pakistanis get what they want, and there is no Indian influence in Kabul (despite a millenia of relations). Then what? What exactly has Pakistan gained? Will its economy grow faster? Will its own tribal militants climb down? Will it rise into a modern secular republic? Pakistan’s perrenially short-sighted Generals need to ask themselves what happens if they get what they want. Then what?

Published in: on February 9, 2010 at 10:08 pm  Comments (1)  
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If Washington won’t govern, who will?

There’s a real breakdown in the system of governance in this country. Our Congressmen seem to have forgotten why they were sent to Washington. The latest betrayal of trust is by Senator Shelby who is holding up the confirmation of all of the President’s appointees. This is obscene. Congressmen were sent to Washington to conduct the nation’s business, but are actually too busy playing partisan politics (or grabbing pork for their home state) to ensure their continued tenure in power. Shelby demonstrates yet again that Washington needs fixing and now. Redsitricting is one mechanism. Force Congressmen in the House to face an electorate that looks like the country as a whole and not some gerrymandered invention of a district designed to keep them in power for ever. In the Senate,  it is time to end the filibuster. Passage of bills should need a majority in the Senate not a supermajority, which should be reserved for important constitutional issues. The filibuster worked only if it wasnt abused. Those days are now behind us. Democracies dont just function because they are a good idea or a moral form of government. They work because elected officials play both by the rules and the spirit of the system. This is not happening. Politicians need to be made more accountable to their electorate and stripped of their individual ability to cynically hold up the nation’s business for their own narrow interests. If Congressmen are not interested in governing, they should come home and let us send others to Washington who honestly are.

Published in: on February 9, 2010 at 10:45 am  Leave a Comment  
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All Saints Day

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints. They played a good game and deserve their first Superbowl victory. The city does too. It will be one long Mardi Gras in the French Quarter this year.

Published in: on February 8, 2010 at 11:22 am  Leave a Comment  

A Chinese American “Cold War”?

A Chinese state owned newspaper polled its readers last week as to the state of relations between Beijing and Washington. Over half of its respondents answered taht they believed the US and China were entering a “Cold War”. This is important as it tells us that mistrust towards the US is not just a governmental affair, but that it is widely shared by the Chinese urban public. Clearly,  suspicion is a two way street. Of course, the issues they site are the same: Taiwan, Tibet, Trade (the “big 3″). Beyond this, Americans also criticize China for its human rights record in general, its locking up of resources globally as well as its censorship of the internet. For their part, the Chinese see this criticism as Americans tools to “keep China down”.

On those last two topics, some developments over the past few days:

1. China and Australia have signed a mammoth deal that gives China access to a gargantuan new cold field in Australia – further evidence that Australia is turning into a resource base for the industrializing Middle Kingdom the way it was once for the United Kingdom.

2. China says it has raided a major source of internet hacking. Recent criticism over Google must have stung. Of course, this does nothing with regards the official hacking into the security apparatus of the Pentagon and other Washington institutions. India just announced that Chinese hackers had compromised the computers of over 200 top Indian security officials including the three armed forces chiefs and the National Security Advisor.

An emerging Cold War indeed.

Published in: on February 8, 2010 at 11:13 am  Leave a Comment  
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Debt & Deficits are only symptons. (Lack of) governance and complacency are the causes

Larry Summers asks how long the world’s largest debtor country and can remain the world’s most powerful country. His point is well taken. Great powers dont borrow themselves into their greatness. Given this basic reality, we have to assume that the US is heading for a fall. But the US has it in its ability to fix its fiscal issues. Get a control over the costs of the future: health expenses, medicare, social security. It could make the decisions on higher taxes versus lower spending that will bring some form of balance once the current crisis has abated. But there seems no will to try and do this. And thats the problem. Neither the Democrats nor the GOP are taking responsiblity for the overall situation.

Why?

Because Congressmen are playing to their core constituencies only and not thinking of the bigger picture.

And why is this?

Because their districts back home have been gerrymandered so that their party will win no matter what. Their real political concern are challenges that come from further to the left or the right of their own parties. Given this, there is no incentive or even attempt at reaching a compromise with the other side. This is a problem that now pervades everything in Washington. Lack of honest democracy leading to a lack of national governance.

Perhaps a bigger question is why doesnt the public as a whole address this? After all, this is not new. Could it be because the nation as a whole is still complacent that the US will remain number one by right, and that the country doesnt need to get its act together to meet the challenges of the future? That is a dangerous assumption. We are now dealing with a world where rising powers are hollowing out our very industrial base (let alone national wealth). At least during the Soviet days, we had a focus that united us into taking tough decisions. Perhaps the pain of a long recession, or a rising China, will knock us out of our complacency and make us force Washington to take the tough choices necessary to secure America’s long term future.

Published in: on February 4, 2010 at 9:27 am  Leave a Comment  
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